Monday, July 31, 2006

Airport security

A report at today's Heritage Foundation site concluded something that I have been saying for years: It's time to rethink airport security. The current model of airport security, created in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, is based on at least two assumptions: 1. All passengers are equally suspicious and should receive the same scrutiny, and; 2. The principal purpose of airport security is to keep dangerous objects (e.g., knives, guns, and bombs) off of airplanes. This model is wrong, and has resulted in security system that is incredibly wasteful, both in resources and in traveler convenience, while actually doing nothing to make flying safer. The article goes on to describe numerous options for reform. I don't necessarily agree or disagree with them. I am simply glad that someone is actually examining the system with a critical and disinterested eye. The current system was designed in haste in a flush of emotion. It's time to change.

Friday, July 28, 2006

Breastfeeding

This image, the most recent cover of the magazine Babytalk, sparked a barrage of negative feedback.

When a magazine about raising a baby gets in trouble for featuring breastfeeding on its cover, then you know that we in the US are seriously conflicted about the issue.

I can see why some people would be uncomfortable with it. As one woman said, "A breast is a breast -- it's a sexual thing." Another woman said her husband is uncomfortable with other men seeing her breast. Finally, a third woman said, "Ugh, gross."

No one denies the benefits of breastfeeding. The debate is how publicly it can or should be done. But I think the puritanicalism is silly. One mother said, "I don't want my son or husband to accidentally see a breast they didn't want to see." Well, so what if they did? That mother should be more worried about them accidentally seeing some obese woman's protruding belly than about seeing a nursing woman using her breast for what it was designed for (designed by the Designer, of course).

I personally think that the today's puritanicalism will one day pass. It used to be forbidden for a woman to show her ankle, and then later the knee and the bare shoulder, and then the midriff, and now we can see what kind of underwear they're wearing.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Cohabitation again

The other day, I asked what social conservatives would say about a recent ruling in North Carolina that overturned laws banning cohabitation. Well, the question was rhetorical, because we all knew what they would say. They would say things like "the most egregious effect of the judge's ruling was that it lowered a great moral standard." They would say things like "The Seventh Commandment, 'Thou shalt not commit adultery,' which could also be correctly translated, 'Thou shalt not commit sexual immorality,' is the Creator's law -- an eternal verity that guards the great institution of marriage, the sanctity of the family, and the preservation of society."

Living Wage

Chicago requires big-box stores to pay 'living wage' Pro: "It's trying to get the largest companies in America to pay decent wages," said council member Toni Preckwinkle. Con: Mayor Richard M. Daley and others warned the living wage proposal would drive jobs and desperately needed development from some of the city's poorest neighborhoods and lead giants like Wal-Mart to abandon the city. What do you think?

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Betting on the Nanny State

Here's another installment in our long quasi-thread about the Nanny State. A British entrepreneur who operates an online betting service based in Costa Rica is arrested at a layover at Dallas/Fort Worth airport for violating the 1961 Wire Act, which prohibits using "a wire-communication facility" to accept bets on "any sporting event or contest." This story brings up all sorts of juicy subjects: 1. Jurisdictional. Is a non-US citizen who operates a business outside the US (legal in the host nation) subject to US law simply because US citizens avail themselves of the business? 2. Legal. Can we expect the borderless Internet to conform to individual nations' laws, and if so, how do we enforce those laws? 3. Technical. Is the Internet a "wire-communication facility"? 4. Social. Gambling in the US has a fascinating history, going from a vice to a major source of government revenue is a few short decades. Now Congress is working to ban online gambling, though I'm not sure why. How should society treat gambling? I'll take comments on any of the 4 topics, or any others that you can think of.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Police protection

Here's an interesting case. The city of Oakland, CA, was found liable in the 2001 murder of a woman whose estranged boyfriend fatally stabbed her after an officer failed, twice, to arrest him when he violated a restraining order. The failure by Oakland police to jail Brown was the "proximate and legal cause of the death of Freddie Marie Christian," said the lawsuit. I think this case is interesting because it seems that, at the US Supreme Court at least, there has been a gradual erosion of the service we can expect and demand from our police forces. For instance, the Supreme Court recently ruled that victims of domestic violence have no right to have their protective orders enforced. In fact, in a famous case in Washington, DC, Warren v. District of Columbia, the Court of Appeals found that the police were under no specific legal duty to provide protection to individuals. (The pro-gun people love that ruling). So when a court finds that the police were liable because they failed to provide protection, it seems to reverse this thinking. But could it mean that the police will become so lawsuit-shy that they will began to act in ways that protect them from legal action but that don't necessarily have the public interest in mind?

Sports question

Floyd Landis, an American and former teammate of Lance Armstrong, won the Tour de France on Sunday. What do you think it means when this news is carried on the front page of a conservative website, but only gets 3rd tier treatment at Sports Illustrated?

Monday, July 24, 2006

State of Fear

I just finished "State of Fear," Michael Crichton's much-ballyhooed critique of the global warming debate. In general, I don't like Crichton's work; his books sound great in theory but suffer in the execution, and this one was no different. In fact, this one was worse than usual because he relentlessly beats his readers over the head with his highly charged politics. There wasn't even a hint of subtlety. But after finishing the book in a huff, I read the author's afterward and was surprised to learn that Crichton actually has a very reasoned and reasonable attitude toward global climate change, one with which I largely agree. He also included a very lengthy and interesting bibliography, something that the usual potboiler does not contain. So my recommendation is to skip the book and just read the afterward.

Stem cells

I've been working on a post on Bush's veto of the stem cell research bill, but today I came across this piece by Ronald Bailey that pretty much sums up what I think in a more succinct way. Bush's veto--his first, by the way--was an obvious attempt to pander to the religious right. Senator Arlen Specter "compared the president’s position to those who opposed Columbus, imprisoned Galileo, and rejected anesthesia, electricity, vaccines and rail travel. Such attitudes, Specter declared, “In retrospect look foolish, look absolutely ridiculous.”"

Friday, July 21, 2006

Thou shalt cohabit

A 200-year-old North Carolina law that prohibited unmarried couples from living together was struck down as unconstitutional by state court. I of course support this ruling, as should everyone who supports individual liberty. Said the ACLU, "the government has no business regulating relationships between two consenting adults in the privacy of their own home...the idea that the government would criminalize people's choice to live together out of wedlock in this day and age defies logic and common sense." What do you think the social conservatives will say?

Hug your Hummer

"Have You Hugged a Hummer Today? Hybrid vehicles' overall energy costs exceed those of comparable non-hybrids." That's the scandalous headline from a recent Reason article that discusses something called the "dust to dust" energy usage of cars. An analyst looked at data on the energy necessary to plan, build, sell, drive, and dispose of a car from the initial conception to scrappage. He even included in the study such minutiae as plant-to-dealer fuel costs of each vehicle, employee driving distances, and electricity usage per pound of material. All this data was then boiled down to an "energy cost per mile" figure for each car. According to this analysis, the dust to dust cost of a Honda Civic hybrid is $3.238 per mile. For a Ford Escape hybrid, $3.2 per mile. And for a Hummer, $1.949 per mile. The reason for this cost difference, the analysis says, is that the dust to dust cost is correlated to the "fanciness" of the car. A car like the Hummer has a very simple engine, simple frame, unsophisticated design, and components made of cheap steel. A hybrid has a complicated propulsion system and is composed of expensive, sometimes exotic materials. In fact, the energy costs of disposing a Hummer are 60 percent less than an average hybrid's and its design and development costs are 80 percent less. And it only gets worse. According to Reason, "One of the most perverse things about U.S. consumers buying hybrids is that while this might reduce air pollution in their own cities, they increase pollution– and energy consumption -- in Japan and other Asian countries where these cars are predominantly manufactured. 'In effect, they are exporting pollution and energy consumption,' the analyst says." Voila. Environmentalists are once again exposed as the hypocrites they are. I mean, isn't that the purpose of these types of articles? First let me say that I am glad someone did a life cycle cost and energy audit of cars. It gives us valuable data with which to make informed decisions. Unfortunately, I currently can't access the original report, because I would love to see the methodology. As with any study like this, when the author includes things like "plant to dealer fuel costs" or "employee driving distances," well, you need to take the results with a grain of salt. There would have to be so many assumptions made in calculations like those that they become open to criticism. But, I'm sure those costs are small compared to the development, construction, and disposal costs. And this is where my real problem with this analysis is. I think that it is disingenuous to essentially compare a ten-year old technology to a 100-year old one and conclude that the 100-year old one is cheaper. Isn't that what is really going on here? Of course the design and development costs for a hybrid are higher. Even though the idea for a hybrid car has been been around for a while, it's only been in mass production since 1997. There are currently, what, five hybrids on the market now. If you are looking to amortize your design and development costs, five models over ten years is not a large baseline. Meanwhile, cars with internal combustion engines have been in continuous mass production for over one hundred years, with literally thousands of models. (We'll also ignore the fact that the Hummer was designed and developed by the military, so GM's costs in that regard were very small). The design and development challenges for the most part are resolved. Further, as the article notes, parts are widely interchangeable with such an ample product line. The marginal cost to produce today's internal combustion car is very low. I doubt that anyone would countenance a similar comparison between the simple carbureted engine of a 1940 Ford and the computer-controlled, fuel-injected engine of a 2007 Ford, a comparison that would yield similar results. I also have a problem with the "exporting pollution" argument. I don't disagree that it's true. But can you think of a single product for which it is not true? Environmentalists are exporting pollution when they compose air quality legislation on their computers. They are exporting water consumption when they buy low-flow toilets. They are exporting energy consumption when they buy solar panels. Of course, environmentalists aren't the only ones who consume things, so we are all guilty. And that leads me to my overall beef with this article. The whole thing can be factually and contextually correct (which I'm not sure is completely true). But the conclusion it draws is all wrong. I'm convinced that a major reason that so many people oppose eco-conscious initiatives is that in accepting the correctness of the initiative, they are acknowledging that their current actions are wrong. For instance, if I accept that my current 3.5 gallon-per-flush toilet wastes water, then every time I flush it, I know I'm being wasteful. I can either replace it with a low-flow toilet, which takes time and effort, or I can buy into the myth that low-flow toilets don't actually save water because they require more flushes to do the same job and so I can feel good about my current habits. (The multiple-flush myth, by the way, was exploded by the American Waterworks Association's Residential End Uses of Water survey). The same goes true for auto fuel consumption. I'm sure that a Hummer offers a very nice driving experience, certainly much different than a Prius or Civic. I'd sure hate to give it up just because it is fuel-inefficient. I feel vaguely guilty about driving it. But wait! A Hummer is actually better for the environment than a Prius. Now I can have my cake AND eat it, too. At any rate, that's what people want to hear. What I want to hear is an acknowledgement that as hybrids or electrics or whatever alternative to gas guzzlers become more established in the market, costs will come down. (In fact, the dust to dust cost analysis was based on the fact that the Prius has a life of 100,000 miles versus a Hummer's 300,000. As the Prius matures, which it undoubtedly will if it is kept in production, we should see that lifespan improve. If it doubles to 200,000--not unreasonable and still 30% less than the Hummer's--the energy per mile cost drops to $1.6). What I want to hear is acknowledgement that perhaps our current lifestyle choices are not always sustainable or in our overall best interest. This article represents the easy way out.

Thursday, July 20, 2006

The truth about bloggers

According to a new study by the Pew Internet and American Life Project, the blogosphere is nonpartisan, a lot more diverse than thought, and nearly half female. The average blogger is well educated, gainfully employed and blogs fully clothed. Other facts: English is the second most prevalent language among blog posters internationally. Thirty-seven percent of postings are in Japanese; 31 percent in English. Pew estimates that 57 million Americans read blogs. The Pew study found that the largest percentage of bloggers in their sample (37 percent) blog about their "life and experiences," and 52 percent said the major reason they blog is to express themselves creatively. They didn't ask me, but the major reason I blog is to disseminate the truth.

No news is good news

"US Airways to place ads on barf bags" Why is this news? Are US airlines so bereft of creativity that when they do something that many European airlines have been doing for years, they get banner treatment?

Monday, July 17, 2006

Gone

I'll be out of town until Thursday....

Highway Capacity

A piece I posted on the Interstate Highway System sparked an interesting discussion on ways to deal with our lack of highway capacity. Anonymous and squantum had different solutions to the problem. I think it's worthwhile to expand on their comments a little bit. First of all, Anonymous hit on a very good point. Most traffic congestion occurs on "intra-city" roadways. In fact, most metro auto travel happens not in a suburb-to-center pattern, but a suburb-to-another-suburb pattern. Our roadways for the most part do not reflect this travel pattern, and so if we lack critical road links, it is in this way. Anonymous thinks that the major causes of urban traffic congestion are: poor driver behavior, weather, construction, and carpool lanes. He was actually pretty spot-on. Let's look at this in detail. Weather and construction don't really need comment, except to note that construction is only going to get worse. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives the US road system a "D" on their infrastructure report card. The carpool lane is an interesting case. The problem with making statements about carpool lanes is that each one is very different, even two that serve the same metro area. Some are unsuccessful and some are very successful, succesful, by the way, at moving people, not necessarily at moving cars. Remember that by definition, a carpool lane is carrying cars that have more people in them. (Average vehicle occupancy in the US is about 1.1 people). If a carpool lane is 2+, the average vehicle occupancy of cars not using the lane is 1.0. So if the carpool lane carries 51% of the traffic of a normal lane, it is more efficient than a non-carpool lane. With a 3+ carpool lane, the difference is more striking. (Of course, this is simplified because in CA, for instance, hybrids with only 1 person can use the carpool lane). So the thing to look at is the area that a carpool lane is serving. The obvious problem with carpooling is that for it to work, you need several people who live near each other to also work near each other, and have similar schedules. The Oakland-San Francisco city pair meets this criterion, and so carpooling over the Bay Bridge is very successful. The Fremont-Contra Costa County area does not meet this criterion, and so carpooling on I-680 is not so successful. Also, reports from police suggest that carpool lane misuse and abuse are not as widespread as one might think. My point is that carpool lanes can't be uniformly condemned. They must be examined on a case-by-case basis. As for driver behavior, I think I have to agree with squantum. It's dangerous to design a system without taking into consideration the attributes of the users of that system. In other words, we can't design a highway and wish that drivers were better. We have to realize that drivers will do "stupid" things and so design the highway system to be as robust and forgiving as possible. Better driver education would probably help, though I can say that the very rigorous driver education they have here in Italy (year-long, very intense) still produces a slightly higher traffic-related death rate (12.5/100,000) than in the US (12.1/100,000). Finally, a note on induced demand. Induced demand is the term to describe the phenomenon of "if you build it, they will come." If you build a new highway to address traffic congestion, within a few years, that highway will be just as congested because demand has grown and shifted to make use of the new supply--and it's not just attracting people from farther away. Businesses will relocate, commuters will change routes, people will move house. Induced demand is a well-known concept, though not necessarily well-quantified. It's also not clear that it's necessarily a bad thing. In fact, some people (but not me) say induced demand is really unmet latent demand. But in the end, it is real. So, I guess I don't really have a point. I just wanted to talk about traffic.

Hidden Fees

If you are like me, you are annoyed by all the hidden fees that businesses tack on to their goods and services. For instance, take your printer. You pay $50 up front, thinking you are getting a great deal. But when it comes time to buy the replacement ink cartridges, you realize that maybe it wasn't a good deal after all. Cell phones, hotels, and airlines are also good at this behavior. Why do businesses do this? According to two economists, businesses do this because it's in their best interest to do so. Here's how they explain it, using two hotels as examples:

The first, Hidden Price Inn, has a very low room rate of $80 a night, but makes liberal use of high "shrouded" fees: Three bucks for a minibar Coca-Cola, $25 for parking, $12 for eggs at breakfast. The unsophisticated traveler cheerily (if unwittingly) forks over the fees, all the while patting herself on the back for getting a cheap room. Now imagine a second chain, Straightforward Suites. It charges much more reasonably for the extra costs ($1, say, for that Coke), but because it makes less on the extras, it has to charge slightly more for the room -- $95, instead of $80. Even an unsophisticated traveler can tell $95 isn't as good as $80. Through an aggressive ad campaign, Straightforward could try to point out how devious the approach of Hidden Price Inn is and how much less deceptive its own prices are. But Laibson and Gabaix show that there's a catch in this strategy: Hidden Price Inn actually has two key types of customers. Yes, there are the clueless consumers (the economists prefer to call them "myopic"). But there are also the sophisticated ones, who know that if they avoid the hotel restaurant, take a taxi instead of using the parking garage and call home with a cell phone, they'll actually get a better deal at Hidden Price than at Straightforward.

So be that sophisticated consumer. By the way, on a recent trip to India, I discovered that India is the land of the hidden fee. Take my trip to the museum in Trivandrum. I paid the entrance fee, which was reasonable. Then I walked down a long hall until I get to a waiting area to wait for the mandatory guide. There I learn that shoes are not permitted in the museum and that I have to leave mine in the shoe room. Oh yeah, there's a charge for shoe storage. Once the tour starts, I try to take a picture, only to learn that there's a photo charge. Finally, at the end of the tour, the guide tells me that he's not included in the entrance fee and he'll be extra. So all told, I paid about three times the entrance fee in all the hidden fees. So we should be glad that we don't have it that bad.

Friday, July 14, 2006

Why is gas so cheap?

Yesterday, Steve was surprised at inflation-adjusted price of gasoline. He asks, "Here I thought rising prices were a sign of scarce oil becoming more expensive to procure. Yet somehow the oil industry continues to offer us oil at prices even to, or less than, what we've been paying for the last 80 years. How does the Hammer explain this?" Well, I'm no energy economist, but I think if we look at the components of the retail price of gasoline, we can make some educated guesses at how oil companies have been able to keep the price of gas so low. The price of a gallon of gas breaks out this way, according to this chart I shamelessly stole from the Department of Energy: One reason that gas is still relatively cheap is that refiners can get more gasoline from a barrel of crude. One barrel of crude oil is 42 gallons, which produces, in gallons: 19.5 gasoline 9.2 distillate fuel oil (includes both home heating oil and diesel fuel) 4.1 kerosene-type jet fuel 2.3 residual fuel oil (heavy oils used as fuels in industry, marine transportation and for electric power generation) 1.9 liquefied refinery gasses 1.9 still gas 1.8 coke 1.3 asphalt and road oil 1.2 petrochemical feedstocks (for making plastic) 0.5 lubricants 0.2 kerosene 0.3 other However, of that 19.5 gallons of gas, only 13 gallons can be extracted easily. The other 6.5 gallons requires some pretty sophisticated chemical processes that we haven't always had. The second factor is that refining unit costs have come down as well. This goes hand in hand with the first reason. However, as fuel standards become more stringent for air quality reasons, total refining costs may increase. Low- and zero-sulpher diesel, which is the latest air quality fuel of choice, requires going through a certain refining step multiple times in succession. The unit cost of the refining step is decreasing, but since the number of times that step is performed is increasing, the total cost of diesel is increasing. (This is why trucking companies, city governments--they operate buses, garbage trucks, and other diesel vehicles--and the like are opposed to low-sulpher diesel. They would rather install sulpher traps on the vehicles themselves. But history shows that it's not long before on-vehicle equipment like these traps fail because of poor maintenance.) The third factor is that the distribution costs have come down. Most gasoline is transported by truck, and over-the-road truck transportation has gotten pretty cheap, a fact we can see in the price of just about everything we buy, not just gas. Things like containerization, multimodal freight terminals, and increased fuel efficiency of the trucks are all responsible for this. The one thing that has not decreased over time is taxes. Today, the federal gas tax is 18.4 cents/gallon, while the average state tax is 21 cents/gallon. (Note that the gas tax, unlike other excise taxes, is a fixed amount as opposed to a percentage of the total price. This is problematic because it takes the passage of law to change it. Many people, including me, think that the gas tax is too low--a topic for next week).

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Cell Phone Warnings

The Department of Homeland Security will soon be sending warnings of national emergencies to cell phones. Italy has been doing this for two years now (it was first used when Pope John Paul II died), but when the program first started, people had serious privacy concerns because it meant that the government had access to everyone's cell phone number. Those concerns seemed to have abated. Will there be similar concerns in the US?

Price of Gasoline

The price of gasoline is high right now, but as this graph, from the Department of Energy, shows, when adjusting for inflation (the blue line), gas isn't so expensive after all.

Interstate Highway System

This year is the 50th anniversary of the signing of the 1956 Federal Aid Highway Act, which created the Interstate Highway System. Actually, what it created was the Highway Trust Fund, a special pot of federal money that was filled by a dedicated gas tax. The federal government would then give 90% of the cost of building highways that met certain design standards to the states, who had to contribute the final 10%. This milestone anniversary has prompted a lot of introspection among people who think about these things (like me). Overall, the Interstate system has been an amazingly successful project. But if you live in LA, Washington DC, San Francisco, Atlanta, or any of the other metro areas that the Texas Transportation Institute rates as having very bad traffic, then maybe you don't agree with me. The problem, though, is that the Interstate system has been too successful. As you sit in traffic on I-405, remember that you chose to take I-405 because even with traffic, it is your best option. You chose to live and work where you do, requiring you to take I-405. I'm not saying that these choices are bad or unreasonable. I'm pointing out that I-405, even crowded, gave you the power to make these choices. That's the real benefit of the Interstates. So what do we do in the next 50 years? How do we further expand choice (without breaking the bank or paving over the landscape)? Is it toll roads? More telecommuting? Intercity trains? Reform national transportation financing? Mass transit? It's all of the above.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

More gun control

Much of the controversy surrounding gun control in the US is due to the ambiguous wording of the Second Amendment. To review, the Second Amendment says: "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." A lot of ink has been spent in arguing whether the Founders intended that only militias should have access to arms, a so-called collective right, or if they meant an individual right. I personally believe that even if we discover what the Founders intended, we should utilize that insight with caution, because the Founders probably never imagined, in the days of black powder muzzle loaders, the available, compact, and portable lethality that today's firearms provide. Just as we can pretty much ignore the Third Amendment, which prohibits the quartering of troops in private homes, because it is no longer relevant, we should look carefully at any interpretation of the Second Amendment. But here's an idea. Instead of arguing endlessly about the intent, why don't we just amend the Constitution to clarify the Second Amendment? It's been done before (the 16th Amendment, for instance). It we decide that it's a collective right, it could say, "Congress shall have no power to prohibit state-organized and directed militias." If we decide that it is an individual right, it could say, "Congress shall have no power to prohibit individual ownership of arms."

Gun control

Ben Shapiro, who often writes naive things, continues that tradition with a piece against gun control entitled "Why Citizens must own and carry guns." I found his argument sophomoric for several reasons. First, it's not really clear that had Senitt, the victim in Shapiro's drama, been armed, the crime would have been averted. One of the 4 assailants did have a gun. If Senitt drew his gun, he probably would have been shot. Maybe more people would have been injured or killed in any ensuing Reservoir Dogs-style stand-off. Shapiro is presenting a pretty sad story, it is true, but do they help us examine this issue? So maybe Shapiro is really suggesting the common argument that if everyone were armed, criminals would think twice about committing their crimes, the deterrence argument. My research suggests that the deterrence idea is far from settled. For instance, FBI statistics show that in the 3 years after the passage of the 1994 Brady Bill, the federal gun control law, crime actually decreased, firearm crimes by a full 25%. This implies that the presence of guns catalyzes crime. On the other hand, it could be that this drop was due to the contemporaneous improving economy, which would in turn suggest that the key to crime prevention is not more or less guns, but more economic activity. At any rate, it is not clear. And even if the deterrence argument is true, is it worth the cost? A 1998 study found that for every time a gun was used in a self-defense or legally justifiable shooting, there were four unintentional shootings and 11 attempted or completed suicides. In fact, the US leads the world in child deaths due to firearms. Our rate is 1.7 per 100,000, over 3 times the next country (Finland at 0.5 per 100,000). Firearms injury is the second leading cause of non-natural death in childhood and adolescence in this country. If we have a fully armed citizenry, imagine the carnage as unintended shooting deaths increase. I'm not arguing for or against gun control. I'm saying that jejune arguments like Shapiro's, arguments that appeal to emotion but ignore the facts, will do no good in the complicated issue of guns.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Transportation Fuel

Two months ago, I argued that the key to oil independence is to ween ourselves off of petroleum as a transportation fuel. I advocated greater fuel efficiency in the vehicle fleet as well as policy and land use changes to reduce the total amount of travel that we perform. Yesterday, Reason carried a piece that said the same thing (though they were a little more optimistic about ethanol than I am). It's nice to know that people are starting to come around to my point of view.

Monday, July 10, 2006

Information ownership

Here's an interesting article on parents using high-tech to spy on their kids. "Move over, Big Brother. Big Mother is in the house." The teenagers, predictably, complain about invasion of privacy. But as a legal expert notes, privacy laws do not protect kids from prying parents. "'In the United States, we sort of think of children as being the property of their parents,' said Jennifer Granick, executive director of the Center for Internet and Society at Stanford Law School. 'Generally, there's not going to be anything that says parents can't keep tabs on their children.'" But the technology in the article can be used by others to keep track of the parents. For instance, the CarChip, which monitors the driving behavior of the car, can be used by the police and by insurance companies to help determine guilt in a car accident. In that case, what kind of protection will privacy laws provide? This leads to a bigger question about information ownership. If there is an accident, who owns the information that the CarChip contains? The driver? If so, can the driver refuse to provide it to the insurance company if it is incriminating (citing the 5th Amendment?). Will the police have to subpoena it? Medical information is likewise contested. You may think that you own your medical information, but you don't. In fact, until 2003, under the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, you didn't even necessarily have the right to read your own medical record. Read California's laws on access to medical records and see who actually owns the information.

Friday, July 07, 2006

No free lunch

Here's an extract from a Tax Policy Center report on the federal income tax cuts.

In his recent statement responding to the tax reconciliation bill conference agreement, President Bush asserted that failure to extend the tax cuts contained in the bill would be "disastrous" for "all working Americans." The President's claim is implausible in light of the distribution of the reconciliation bill's benefits. Some 68 percent of all American households will receive no tax cut at all from the legislation, and the average tax cut for households in the middle fifth of the income distribution will be $20. While the $43,000 average tax cut that households with incomes over $1 million will get from the bill could have a significant impact on a family's finances, it hardly seems that the loss of a $20 tax benefit would qualify as a disaster. An even larger fallacy in the President's claim is that it rests on the assumption that the tax cuts are a costless gift from a beneficent government. In fact, deficit-financed tax cuts eventually have to be paid for. The 68 percent of households that receive nothing from the tax cuts will, nonetheless, almost surely have to bear a share of the costs. More than 85 percent of all households have incomes below $100,000, and the vast majority of these households will be net losers when the financing costs of the tax reconciliation bill are considered, according to an analysis by the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center. Moreover, if the tax reconciliation bill is taken to have been partly financed by the spending reconciliation bill enacted earlier this year, then households with modest incomes are already net losers from the tax cuts (see discussion on page four). Some claim that there really is a free lunch to be had in this case because the tax cuts will spur economic growth, which will help everyone and generate enough additional revenue to offset most, if not all, of the tax cuts' costs. That claim is not supported by the evidence (see box on page three). Rather, it is widely recognized that the tax cuts eventually must be financed. Financial markets will not indefinitely tolerate large, persistent, and growing deficits of the type that the nation is projected to face. As former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned, "If you're going to lower taxes, you shouldn't be borrowing essentially the tax cut. And that over the long run is not a stable fiscal situation." Simply stated, funds that are borrowed must eventually be paid back.

Jumping to conclusions

I got two very different responses to my post about Richard Lindzen's consulting work for oil and gas interests. The first one, from someone who works at a state department of environment, said "Also, thanks for your blog in regards to Richard Lindzen being paid by OPEC and other O&G groups. The NM Governor has formed an climate change advisory group http://www.nmclimatechange.us/ that will look into greenhouse gas emissions and such. My bureau has been bouncing emails around about Lindzens op ed response back at CNN's Michelle Mitchell report about the NAS report. It is always good to know the full spectrum of things ...." The second one says "Well, I don't know any more about Dr. Lindzen than from what I've gathered perusing the links you've posted, and I do believe that global warming is an issue. However, I don't see how you can jump to your conclusion that he must be a corrupt quack simply on the basis of one small CMD article revealing that he's done some consulting work for oil and coal companies." I admit that I may have come across too harshly against Lindzen (though I didn't call him a "corrupt quack"). The real target of my criticism was not Lindzen, though, but those conservative commentators who constantly claim that scientists who support the theory of anthropogenic global climate change are prostituting themselves. I wanted to point out that it can go both ways.

Thursday, July 06, 2006

Show me the Money

Cuba Gooding, Jr, won an Oscar with his mantra, "Show me the money!" The mantra of truth-seekers like yours truly should be the same. For instance, take Richard Lindzen's op-ed the other day casting doubt on global warming. Lindzen is an MIT climatologist, so you'd think he'd be credible, but it turns out that he is (or at least has been) on the payroll of "oil and gas interests." Science for hire. Isn't that what the conservatives are always accusing the liberals of? Hats off to Steve for pointing this out.

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

America in Decline

Here are two contrasting views of America. Jeff Luken fears that America is in decline: "It seems the time-honored notions of courage, honor, sacrifice, responsibility and decency have become a thing of the past...You don't need to be a Founding Father to figure out that spiritual faith, courage and liberty are what make a people great. Once upon a time, we instinctively knew this. It is a lesson we need to relearn." Meanwhile, Robert Kaplan says that decline is good; we need to start thinking Beyond American Empire: "No doubt there are some who see an American empire as the natural order of things for all time. That is not a wise outlook. The task ahead for the United States has an end point, and in all probability the end point lies not beyond the conceptual horizon but in the middle distance—a few decades from now." Luken's view is certainly not new. Almost fifteen years ago, culture warrior William Bennett said our decline began in 1960. Thomas Brewton, a vocal proponent of the America-in-decline argument, is a little more circumspect but seems to peg the beginning of the end at 1789. In fact, if you google America in Decline, you'll find that there are as many opinions on when the decline started as there are conservative bloggers. But the truth is, the "America in decline" mantra is as old as America itself. America was the richest, most powerful country in the world in 1900, yet immigration fears, a serious depression in the 1890's and several recessions in the next decade, a war (Spanish-American), and the assassination of a president (McKinley) all fueled talk of decline. As Alan Dowd states, "Many observers worried that America was in decline in the 1950s, when communist forces fought U.S. and allied forces to a stalemate in Korea. So taxed was the U.S. in Northeast Asia that Washington called for German rearmament in late 1950. American power was thought to be waning in the late 1940s as well, when "we lost China," and in the immediate postwar period, when Americans were reading news stories about failure and futility in occupied Germany." America is not in decline. (and I'm not the only one who thinks so).

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

A Deist Nation

It's so common today to hear that the US is "Christian nation," that the Founding Fathers would be scandalized by our interpretation of the First Amendment, and by our generally "un-Christian" culture. A recent book suggests that these thoughts are wrong.

Congressional Timewasting

If you think that Congress doesn't really have a lot to do these days, you're apparently right. Their latest timewaster? Several congressmen want to hold hearings on the Motion Picture Association of America's (MPAA) movie rating system. It seems that "Blunt and a handful of other House members said they remain concerned about the subjective nature of the ratings process."

Monday, July 03, 2006

Global Warming

Richard Lindzen, a climatologist at MIT, published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal saying that the hype surrounding global warming is just that, hype. He states that we simply do not understand the earth's climate well enough to make any substantial claims about anthropogenic climate change.

Firework safety

Are fireworks dangerous? Should they be banned? Or are fireworks laws merely another Nanny State intrusion? Fireworks would seem to be pretty dangerous. They are explosive, incendiary, mass-produced, with low production quality standards. And I know from vast personal experience how powerful and destructive off-the-shelf fireworks can be. But, according to the American Pyrotechnics Association, fireworks are actually quite safe: "Consumption of fireworks in the United States has risen dramatically over the past two and a half decades, from 29 million pounds in 1976 to over 281.5 million pounds in 2005. While the industry has seen an 870.7% increase in fireworks consumption per million pounds, there has been a 90.1% decrease in fireworks-related injuries per 100,000 pounds." And in another report, the APA says that: "Approximately 70 million Americans sustain nonfatal injuries each year, according to data compiled by a special commission of the National Research Council. Motor vehicles, firearms, and falls account for over 60% of this total. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission(CPSC) has estimated that approximately 10,000 Americans have been injured annually in fireworks-related incidents over the past decade, with serious misuse accounting for a large majority of the incidents. Fireworks, therefore, are involved in only about 0.01 % of all injuries — 99.99 % of injuries in this country are associated with something other than fireworks. There are an estimated 6,820 hospitals in the United States, according to the AmericanHospital Association. Each hospital, on the average, treats approximately one fireworks-related injury per year. In contrast, there are approximately 205 automobile related and 82 bicycle related injuries treated per hospital per year." Finally, the APA lists these numbers for major sources of heat- or burn-related injuries for the year 2000: Ovens--44098 Fireplaces--26831 Stoves--21713 Gasoline--18525 BBQ--17967 Lighters--14693 Fireworks--11000 Therefore, they conclude, cooking is more dangerous than fireworks. Should we accept this? Well, I think that it's always a good idea to be skeptical of data produced by a trade group. I mean, of course the American Pyrotechnics Association is going to say that fireworks are safe. In this case, I don't mean that the APA is lying. I just mean that the numbers deserve a little more nuanced analysis. For instance, let's remember that fireworks use, for the most part, is concentrated in an approximate 7-day period in June/July once a year. Ovens, meanwhile, are used pretty much year-round. So if we take the injury numbers above and calculate a per day rate instead of a per year rate, we see that fireworks are much more dangerous. Ovens--121 Fireworks--1571 Now consider who actually uses fireworks. By the APA's own numbers, most fireworks users are males older than 15. We can probably exclude males older than, say, 65 as well. So if we go to the US Census for age data, we see that of the 281 million people in 2000, 91 million fit into our age/gender range of fireworks users. I'm sure that we could filter it down even more with more time. How many people, on the other hand, use ovens? I bet it's closer to half the population, or 140 million. So if we divide the injury numbers by users, we get Ovens--0.8/million/day Fireworks--17/million/day That's a factor of 21. Of course, this analysis is very crude. My point is that the APA's numbers must be looked at with a critical eye. Now, all that being said, fireworks don't seem to be as dangerous as they might at first appear. 11,000 injuries a year, no matter how concentrated, really isn't that much. And even though there's no discussion of the seriousness of the injuries, in my experience, most injuries are relatively minor (though I work with someone who lost 3 fingers to a whistling rocket with report). Finally, I think we need to consider the cost/benefit analysis that I mention so often. Laws banning fireworks are not banning the professional shows that communities or businesses often sponsor. They are banning the private sale of low-grade fireworks to average citizens for their own little displays. So how important are these private neighborhood shows to our expressions of patriotism on the 4th of July? Are they worth 11,000 injuries and $5.4 million in damage a year? Maybe yes, maybe no, but that is the question that needs to be asked.